Meteorology expert Dr Liew Ju Neng told a forum in Kuala Lumpur yesterday that the extraordinary rainfall Kelantan experienced which led to the floods was due to a climate element called Madden-Julian oscillation. – The Malaysian Insider pic by Seth Akmal, January 28, 2015.Malaysia will see more severe floods like those that displaced more than 100,000 people in Kelantan recently due to a combination of global warming, deforestation and a lack of enforcement.This was the conclusion from experts at a forum to discuss the Kelantan floods last night who argued that all three factors turned what is an annual occurrence into a national disaster.Since floods are year-end phenomena, these factors could be present in other parts of the country which will make such disasters even more severe.The extraordinary rainfall that Kelantan experienced in the span of three to four days, said meteorology expert Dr Liew Ju Neng, was due to a tropical climate element called the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO).The MJO originates from the Indian Ocean and passes through Malaysia four times a year, said Liew of Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia (UKM).When it comes in contact with the Northeast monsoon season that hits the peninsula at the end of the year, it will cause more than usual rain, he said at the Forum titled “Kelantan floods: Coincidence or fate?" in Kuala Lumpur last night.The MJO increases the amount of easterly winds which carries more moisture and this leads to the monsoon dumping more rain than usual when it goes through the peninsula.On January 4, Kelantan Deputy Menteri Besar Datuk Mohd Amar Nik Abdullah said that during the height of the floods, there were two days where the amount of rain was equivalent to the total Kelantan experienced for a month last year.Liew said although the MJO travels through Malaysia four times a year, extreme storms only happen when they hit other climate phenomena such as the monsoon.“Since the 1970s, MJOs are becoming more active. Due to global warming, MJOs have increased by 40% to 50%. So in the next 30 to 40 years, we will the MJO passing through six times a year."
Rantau Panjang MP Siti Zailah Mohd Yusoff said an estimated RM2 billion in damages were sustained due to the floods. – The Malaysian Insider pic by Seth Akmal, January 28, 2015.The increased frequency of MJOs will lead to more extreme storms which can cause floods to be more severe.The massive floods in Johor in 2006 and 2007 which had been caused by extraordinary rainfall, was also due to the MJO said Liew.Last night's forum was organised by youth group Solidariti Anak Muda Malaysia (SAMM), one of the many NGOs who helped collect and deliver aid to flood hit areas in Kelantan.Rantau Panjang MP Siti Zailah Mohd Yusoff said it is estimated that the floods caused RM2 billion in damages while 2,500 houses were destroyed in Kelantan alone. Twelve lost their lives.The floods that also hit Perak, Terengganu and Pahang at the end of last year collectively affected 200,000 residents.Both Putrajaya and the Kelantan government have been blamed for not being adequately prepared for relief operations, as seen in how whole communities were cut off for days without food, clothes and the possibility of rescue.Another expert, Sharmila Ariffin of environmental group Sahabat Alam Malaysia (SAM), explained that another factor which worsened floods was the clear-cutting of forests to build plantations.She said Kelantan was losing its forests at the highest rate in the peninsula.The high rate of deforestation was due to the creation of timber plantations within permanent forest reserves in Kelantan. In 2014 alone, the state had about 162,000 ha of land classified as timber plantations.
Sharmila Ariffin of environmental group Sahabat Alam Malaysia attributed the worsening floods to clear-cutting of forests to build plantations. – The Malaysian Insider pic by Seth Akmal, January 28, 2015.The plantations are in areas where the forest has been clear-cut, all its logs extracted and the undergrowth removed thereby leaving top soil bare.Although Kelantan has the highest growth rate of timber plantations in the peninsula, said Sharmila, the federal government also has a policy of encouraging plantations all over the country.“This is a policy throughout the country. Not just in Kelantan. There is a RM1 billion fund using the public’s money to encourage cutting down of forests to build plantations."The problem with clear-cutting forests, said drainage expert Datuk Fuad Abdul Rahman, is that it exposes top soil which runs off and chokes rivers with sediment.“When you lose top soil and ground vegetation, the land is not able to absorb rain," said Fuad, who is former deputy director-general of the Drainage and Irrigation Department.Heavier than usual rainfall would then swell already shallow rivers, leading them to overflow and cause floods.These conditions were present in the environment surrounding Sungai Kelantan where forests were clear cut and top soil was allowed to flow unchecked into the river, Fuad said.Sungai Kelantan was one of the main rivers which overflowed and flooded the towns surrounding it, such Kuala Krai, Tanah Merah, Pasir Mas and Kota Baru.Fuad said damage to the environment could have been reduced had the local council enforced regulations requiring those clearing the forest to implement an erosion and sediment control plan.“We presented our findings about the damage to the Kelantan government. But the official told us that it was hard for Kelantan to enforce regulations to control erosion and sediment."Just as in the case with the climate phenomenon and deforestation, this lack of enforcement applies not just to Kelantan but across the country.
Datuk Fuad Abdul Rahman, former deputy director-general of the Drainage and Irrigation Department, urged for deforestation to stop. – The Malaysian Insider pic by Seth Akmal, January 28, 2015.The failure to monitor earthworks and prevent soil erosion was clogging up waterways and drains which are in turn crucial to channelling rain water away during storms.“The authority to enforce lies with the local council. But too often they do not have the awareness or capacity to enforce. So they push it to the Drainage and Irrigation Department (JPS).“But JPS can only act in an advisory capacity," said Fuad.The floods in Kelantan, said the forum’s moderator Badrul Hisham Shahrin, was an opportunity for the country to reflect and become aware of how such a disaster happened and how to prevent it from recurring.The lessons from Kelantan could be applied to the whole country. As another SAMM volunteer from the audience put it:“God should not be blamed for these floods." – January 28, 2015.
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